Did anyone see this coming? Like, with all the big flashing lights?

Well ok, so I didn’t quite see this coming. Ralph Nader’s announcement came a little like a bolt out of the blue to me. Given the current candidate match-up (Obama/McCain), I can see where he’s coming from – somewhat. Neither has actually made his brand of consumerist populism the centerpiece of their campaign.

Then again, what does Nader expect to achieve? He barely registered even in single digits the last time around, and many democrats will never forgive him for what they blame as his role in tipping the 2000 election in favor of George W. Bush. He’s facing a dogged Republican war hero on one hand (and, does that even matter, really? No one who’ll vote for McCain is even seriously considering Nader) and the Second Coming of Christ – sorta. He claims that by running, he’ll force both candidates to take his concerns into consideration, but even that is a pretty flimsy reed – Obama and McCain’s power comes from the center, not the far left (or right for that matter). Neither is likely to feel overly pressured to appease “his” supporters.

Of course his candidacy will cause unease in Democratic circles, given Nader’s ability to siphon off small margins of the lunatic left who might otherwise have thrown the dice for Obama, but let’s get real here. Obama appeals in ways beyond his nuts-and-bolts policies. Those are really just the icing on the cake for him – where other candidates bake a cake on their policies, then ice it with pretty flowers, Obama’s is a nice fluffy Pavlova with the fruit on top. Nader would be hard pressed to pull any serious weight against Obama, whose policies will be the draw for the Clintonites when – ok, IF – Clinton drops out. Fusing record turnouts with a united base, Nader isn’t going to pose a serious threat to the Obama Blitzkrieg. If the conservative base does decide to rally around McCain, the math will change, but that doesn’t seem at all likely at all. If McCain cannot forge a coalition between the center and the right, he’s gonna…well, I’ve mentioned it before.

So yeah, Ralph, you’re irrelevant.