Now that he’s secured the nomination, Obama’s next challenge is transform his nomination platform into an electoral platform. I have no doubts that he’ll manage, neither do I have doubts that he’ll win the election. What I’m wondering is if he can hold his disparate coalition together long enough to create a landslide - or will he simply scrape by on a wing and a prayer?

Someone once said that Obama is “a political rorschach blot” - people see in him what they want to see. As the campaign goes along, however, Obama will not have the luxury of being everything to everyone. He’ll have to take positions that are unpopular to some and stake claims that trod on others’ toes. We’re seeing this with FISA - it isn’t popular with Obama’s fanbase on the net, yet the candidate is staking a position that runs contrary to popular wishes, probably calculating that those most vehemently opposed to the bill will vote for him anyway when faced with the specter of a John McCain presidency. I think most will forgive him this one - but there’ll be others. Other cases that will force him to choose where he wants to stand -firmly and unambiguously. He can’t do anything else, or he’ll lose votes for being too ambiguous, which will allow the “Obama is has no plans” crowd to pile on him.

On the other hand, this means that Obama’s biggest challenge in the days ahead won’t be defeating McCain - it’ll be preventing the Balkanization of his base.