The innocence didn’t last even beyond July. To be fair on McCain, it’s been painfully clear that he needed to shape up his campaign into a leaner, sharper-edged machine compared to it’s amorphous and sedate nature to this point. I’m not privy to the quiet machinations behind the Republican’s campaign, but I’m pretty sure he’s been doing his own homework. While it would be nice to think that Obama’s current weaknesses (and I use that word relatively) are due largely to external events, I don’t think anyone should be deluded into thinking that the Republicans are going to take prospective defeat lying down.

It’s been fashionable to compare the elegant, eloquent Obama campaign to McCain’s apparently bumbling, stumbling advertising, pandering and roundhouse gaffes. It’s also fashionable to propose that the panacea to Obama’s current travails is to present concrete, detailed policy positions. By contrasting himself to the bumbling McCain and demonstrating his intellectual and personal gravitas, so the story goes, Obama can counter the Republican’s clumsy, offensive swipes at him.

That’s a big mistake.

Over the past few days, the Huffington Post has had a couple of interesting posts concerning the Republican’s advertising tactics: E-mailing, swarms of ‘flailing’ attack ads, and (and I think this is the most telling of all) simple keyword messaging.

I think the last one sums things up pretty well. It has nothing to do with people “not paying attention” or not being discerning enough. It’s actually a well known science in marketing circles, particularly e-marketing circles, that certain words can subtly influence a reader’s/listener’s/viewer’s attitudes. It’s a  game of putting people in a frame of mind where they’re open to suggestion regarding a particular subject and setting them up to agree with you. Sure, you might be able to dodge a few such questions, but as the average joe goes about his daily life, juggling job, family and relaxation, how much time does he have to listen? How much time does he have to “inform himself”.

It’s a conceit bordering on intellectual arrogance by an unfortunately large section of the left to assume that the reason people don’t pay attention is because they don’t care or that they’re too stupid or lazy to listen, learn and think for themselves - face it, not everyone has the time to peruse the verbose verbiage of politics, let alone educate themselves in the way economics works. The vast masses of the people instead rely on gut instinct and common sense to arrive at a decision, and long explanations be damned. Professor level economists, four-star generals and global policy strategists can barely agree with each other over their own theories and tactics, what more Joe Average who’s just trying to put a meal on his table and take the kids to Disney World once year.

Obama’s campaign has been so successful so far simply because it’s latched onto this simple fact. That’s why they’ve hammered “Change” into the ground. People think that the country is on the wrong track - that’s why we need to “Change”. What constitutes change is left open and, as far as winning is concerned, it doesn’t need to be completely filled out with the nuts and bolts of how it’s going to be accomplished. What’s more important is getting people to feel that what proposals DO come forth actually constitute “Change For The Better”. 

Unfortunately, it would seem that Obama’s campaign has fallen afoul of another old advertising axiom - message burnout. There’re only so many times an advertiser can repeat a message before it becomes old and stale. There will come a point where the message no longer resonates and even starts to result in negative returns - turning people away instead of bringing them in. That’s what the Obama campaign is currently facing. Obama needs to find a new push word.

And it would seem that McCain’s stolen a march on him - sort of. McCain’s own message - straight talk, honorable service - have been worn to stumps and, to his campaign’s credit, they seem to have recognized that. That’s probably what’s behind the dizzying array of attack ads that’s hitting Obama - the Obama campaign hasn’t yet regrouped around a fresh theme to push. By hitting Obama with a blizzard of ads to bat off, McCain has the initiative in the ad war by forcing Obama to react and, ultimately, force Obama into pushing an untenable theme. And it doesn’t matter that these attacks are aimless and without a central theme. Keywords, baby. Push a variety of themes and let the little hints stick in the public’s subconscious. The results are not a single devastating blast to the armor, but a roaring of waves wearing at Obama himself. 

Obama is the foundation - more than anything else, this election is about him. As much as people will say it’s about the issues, Presidential elections are always, to a greater or lesser extent, about the man. So that there is McCain’s strategy - hammer at Obama’s image with a dizzying array of ads on just about any topics. That way, if Obama successfully deflects one avenue of attack, the McCain campaign can easily shift to a different tack and hit him again. This might seem like a wasteful diversion of resources for the cash-strapped McCain campaign, but when you consider what I said earlier about the power of words, it makes a lot of sense - each negative impression of Obama that sticks in people’s minds is a win. Throw enough of them around and they begin to form a picture in people’s minds. Like Obama’s “Change”, no one really knows what it means, but everyone has their own idea.

It also has the advantage of being a flexible tactic. Instead of throwing all their chips into one roll of the dice, they spread them out and gamble that, despite their apparent advantages, the Obama campaign will prove to be another Wehrmacht - deadly efficient in the short term, catastrophically flawed in the long run and vulnerable to the kind of attritional warfare McCain is now employing - not resources, but the candidate himself.

This is going to be a long Summer.